英倫金融[外匯評論] ：市場不會重演上週五的行情走勢

“我懷疑今天整體價格波幅有限…”
價格較低級別的震盪整理會帶來什麼不同…上週五價格走勢與預期完全走反，美元進一步上行並遠離我所預期的目標點位元—至少是短期內。美元的上行情況似乎對大部分的貨幣對帶來了聯動性影響，除了英鎊兌美元出現從高位下跌的痛苦走勢之外。實際上，價格還會有進一步創新低的風險，但應該不會下探太多…
美元所表現的走強程度，進一步拓展了較低級別和較高級別浪型之間的平衡限度。可能不會有什麼驚喜表現，距離英國退歐公投還有10天的時間（根據我一年前的結構預期），市場將要調整價格位置。這將會出現反轉走勢－應會在接下來的幾天時間內開始－美元將出現較大幅度的下跌。
奇特的是，雖然澳元兌美元沒有太強意願決定與歐系貨幣對連成同一陣型，但其大致的價格結構形態與歐系貨幣對非常相似，基於價格的下跌程度考慮，後續需要出現更大幅度的反彈修正。
剩下的日元貨幣對…價格走勢傾向於減少方向性運行—或者更適當的是—出現更大級別的震盪走勢，但相對於其他交易品種振幅較小。除了當價格運行到結構形態中的關鍵支撐和阻力區間，否則可能最好的方式是任其價格自由發展。只要小心跟隨價格的運行發展走勢應該能找到些短線交易機會。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Friday won’t be repeated
“I suspect we’ll have a relatively limited range day today…”
What a difference a lower degree wriggle makes… My outlook on Friday went totally wrong, the Dollar rocketing higher and far beyond any targets I had – at least in the short term. These gains do generally look like extending in most pairs, the exception being GBPUSD that has already seen a gut-wrenching leap off the tallest room of the tallest tower on the highest mountain. Well, actually there is a minor risk of a new low but it shouldn’t be by too much…
The degree of the Dollar strength we have seen is actually stretching the limits of the fine balance between the lower degree and higher degree waves. It will probably not come as any surprise that, given there are only 10 days until the UK (according to my structural forecast from one year ago) votes “Leave”, the market is going to square up some positions. This will see a reversal - that should start over the next few days - will see some fairly substantial losses in the Dollar.
Strangely, even AUDUSD decided to partner with the Europeans although with less intensity. However, the structure is basically very similar to the Europeans in terms of an excessive degree of losses that will therefore require a deeper pullback.
This will leave us with the JPY pairs … This tends to promise less directional moves – or perhaps more aptly – a greater degree of swings but with less amplitude compared to the others. They are probably best left alone for the most part except when it comes to the key support & resistance areas implied from the structure. As long as you follow them carefully there should be room for modest short term trades.
Good trading
Ian Copsey